Orb’s Kryptonite

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There are two kinds of weakness, that which breaks and that which bends

James Russell Lowell

We all have our weakness; even super heroes in comic books. Superman would get weak in the presence of Kryptonite, Manhunter’s weakness was fire, and Wonder Woman rendered helpless by tying her bracelets together, but only if her bracelets were tied together by a man.

Like super heroes, horses have weaknesses of their own. Some are challenged by the conditions of a track – was it too fast, too deep, or too sloppy? A soft or fast pace can either result in a victorious win, or the agony of a defeat. In the Preakness Stakes Orb’s abilities were hindered by what appeared to be his greatest weakness.

Breaking from post-position 1 may be the kiss of death for any horse. Most trainer or owners cringe after finding out their horse drew post-position 1. The value of statistics and information gathered while handicapping can leave you questioning your choice of winners. In the back of your mind, you are wondering how powerful is this information in picking a winner? In my previous blog, ITS BEEN 19 YEARS my research found that the last winner out of post position 1 for the Preakness Stakes was Tabasco Cat in 1994. That’s a lot of years since that post produced a winner; prior to 1994 go back to Aching Bally in 1960. Not to mention that post-position 6 has produced the most winners; adding this year’s Preakness winner Oxbow to the list.

Orb had a couple of things obviously against him even before the start of the race:

1.   Post Postion #1 – The kiss of death

2.   As the day wore on at Pimlico, the track started to work well with closers “down the middle” and the inside was probably the worse part of the track

But the biggest and I’m going to say biggest factor against Orb and any closer in the race was the PACE. The pace was too slow for any horse to catch a fast horse in the lead. Closers had really no chance at all. Oxbow had run one “full second” slower than the slowest Preakness in the 19 years preceding with fractions of:

¼ mile                        ½ mile                         ¾ mile                        1 mile

23 4/5                            48 3/5                           1:13 1/5                         1:38

(Courtesy of Super Screener)

I love the theory of, “Pace Makes the Race” as this race was clearly not set up for a closer. As quoted by Super Screener, “Gary Stevens, aboard Oxbow, had stolen the race, or it had been given to him when other speed horses did not push him. If a fast horse in the front is not going fast enough to be tired, then they are not going to stop.”

I couldn’t have said that any better.

Other things I’d like to mention after watching Orb’s last 7 races which I’m sure as a race fan you already know:

1.  Although Orb was already victorious out of post-position 1 in the Fountain of Youth he was also ridden by another jockey at this time, JR Velazquez who also rode Orb to Victory in his 2 previous wins prior to the Kentucky Derby. Joel Rosorio picked up the mount of Orb when JR Velazquez chose to stay aboard Kentucky Derby contender Verrazano.  A Different race, with a different driver.

2. Like a Fashion Model that develops a signature walk, Orb developed his own signature running-style. In all of Orb’s races (except for the Preakness Stakes) he had the exact tendency as a cruiser-closer style to run out wide on the track. In the Kentucky Derby, Orb was out of post-position 16 so he already at an outside post. When he made his move in the race–  he went out 6 wide into full-throttle to the finish line with tag line strapped to his saddle: Catch me if you can. In the Florida Derby, he was 4 wide as he flew past Itsmyluckyday to the finish line, and in the Fountain of Youth he was also 4 wide as he triumphed past Violence for the win. Prior to these big races back in January, Orb had the exact running style going wide. If you went back even further and watched Orb’s races as a 2 year old (I went back 3 more races to November of 2012) you would see that even at two, he still had the same tendencies to go wide. The one thing that stood out to me in watching his past races was that when Orb would make his move for a clear run to the finish line, he NEVER had horses to the right of him. He is not the type of horse that you would find weaving himself through traffic. Instead, Orb’s signature run is to go wide, claim his presence – with those to his left, and switch to full throttle gear.

At the break it looked like the path alongside the rail opened up, but instead of full steam ahead Joel Rosorio decided to hold back. The choice to take him back, but keeping him on the inside and not being able to get out, sealed his fate and with the slow pace, there was no real chance. If there was any chance whatsoever, Orb needed to go wide.  At the ¾ pole to the 1/8 pole, Orb and Joel Rosorio started putting pieces together as he made up 9 lengths and was finally able to split horses to catch, and pass Departing and Goldencents, by then — it was too late, and Orb was able to rally for 4th.

Bloodhorse has a great visual sequence of where each horse was positioned throughout the race

With Titletown Five and Goldencents in the race, I was not the only one who anticipated a faster pace, but with the slowest Preakness fractions Orb’s chances were compromised. Then add all the other factors that I shared; end result was exactly how the race unfolded. Orb was never in a position to shift gears. His energy was off; ears pinned back, and at one point looked like he had no gas in his tank. Orb clearly exposed his weakness like Superman with Kyptonite and there was no running off with the second jewel to the Triple Crown. Kudos to Gary Stevens and Oxbow!

So our hopes once again are shattered; as there will be no Triple Crown winner on the line. With 16 days to go until the Belmont Stakes (June 8th); this will be the toughest race in the Triple Crown trail.  This is the race that will unveil the horse that possesses not only speed, but also stamina. It’s been called the, “Test of the Champion”, and the first time many of these horses will run a 1 ½ . There is no rest for the weary as new shooters will come into the race. They will be fresh with a full tank of gas and ready to face some of the toughest 3 year olds around. The horses that started this journey with the Kentucky Derby, then to run two weeks later in the Preakness will have to dig deep as they will be tested. Will there be a horse that will persevere and handle the back to back races, or will a new shooter declare victory?

Wide, wide turns at the “Big Sandy” and that last turn for home will be killer!  It’s the longest stretch to the finish line that many horses will ever encounter, and TIMING will be the key.

Lets  hope Shug McGaughey will decide to run Orb in the Belmont Stakes. It will be a full field, and he’ll be back at his home track.  Orb will have an opportunity to show us that he is still the best 3-year old out there, and the last time a Kentucky Derby winner won the Belmont Stakes was Thunder Gulch in 1995. 18 years and counting, LETS GIT ER DONE!

Best of luck to everyone!

It’s Been 19 Years…

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Since 1909, post position 6 has produced the most Preakness winners with a total of 15.

The last horse to win from Post Position #1 was Tabasco Cat in 1994, before that? It was in 1960 when Bally Ache won from post 1.

It’s been 19 years since this post has produced a winner, can Orb get this done?

Post 1 – Tabaco Cat, 1994

Post 2 – 0

Post 3 – 0

Post 4 – Red Bullet, 2000, Curlin, 2007

Post 5 – Shakleford, 2011

Post 6 – Louis Quatorze, 1996, Charismatic, 1999, Smarty Jones, 2004

Post 7 – Timber Country, 1995, Silver Charm, 1997, Big Brown, 2008, Lookin At Lucky, 2010

Post 8 – War Emblem, 2002, Bernardini, 2006

Post 9 – Funny Cide, 2003, I’ll Have Another, 2012

Post 10 – Real Quiet, 1998

Post 11 – Point Given, 2001

Post 12 – Afleet Alex, 2005

*Post 13 – Rachel Alexandra, 2009

* filly

 

Pace Makes the Race…Second Jewel Of The Triple Crown…

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With 5 returning foes, and 3 new shooters in the 138th running of the Preakness Stakes will Orb triumph in victory and run away with the second jewel or the Triple Crown, or will there be a horse that shatters our hopes of breaking this 35 year drought?  So many questions and uncertainties are on all of our minds, but the one thing we are certain of is Orb will clearly have target on his back on Saturday.

With only a day to go, post positions were drawn on Wednesday with a field of 9.

#1 Orb ( Kentucy Derby winner, ML 1-1 favorite in the Preakness)

#2 Goldencents (17th in the Kentucky Derby, ML 8-1 in the Preakness)

#3 Titletown Five (New shooter, 4th in the Derby Trail-G3, ML 30-1 in the Preakness)

#4 Departing (New shooter, won the Illinois Derby-G3, ML 6-1 in the Preakness)

#5 Mylute (5th in the Kentucky Derby, ML 5-1 in the Preakness)

#6 Oxbow 6th in the Kentucky Derby, ML 15-1 in the Preakness)

#7 Will Take Charge (8th in the Kentucky Derby, ML 12-1 in the Preakness)

#8 Govenor Charlie (New shooter, won the Sunland Derby-G3, ML 12-1 in the Preakness

#9 Itsmyluckyday (15th in the Kentucky Derby, ML 10-1 in the Preakness)

There is always a concern with getting the infamous “rail position” as your maneuverability is restricted since you really can’t go left.  You obviously have to run right, or look for a clearing to run straight ahead. With immediate speed sitting right next to Orb I don’t foresee post position being a factor since there will surely be a pace presence. Let’s not forget Orb has already triumphed in the #1 post position when he won the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream.

So the question is, will pace make the race once again?  We all had seen what happened with the torrid pace that was set by Palace Malice in this year’s Kentucky Derby opening at 45.1: 1:09.4 — Silly rabbit, tricks are for kids! D. Wayne Lukas commented in an interview to not expect Titletown Five to be in the lead for this race. Well…we’ll try, but in my opinion this is a naturally fast horse and Julian Leparoux will have a difficult time settling him down and hindering him from what he does naturally… run!  In his last couple of races, he had an opening of 45 and 46’and change; this is a really fast colt!  So expect the pace to be aggressive, and quick decisions will have to be made by the Jockeys from the break, to the first turn.

Goldencents in the Santa Anita Derby was aggressive with an opening of 45.2: 1:10.2 and Titletown Five in the Louisiana Derby was just as aggressive with fractions of 46.1: 1:11.4. We’ll see what decisions Kevin Krigger makes for Goldencents as the horse seems to run his best when he is clearly in the lead.  Other speed presence in the race should be Govenor Charlie and Oxbow nearby.

Joel Rosario will also have to make some quick decisions on how he will maneuver Orb. Will be drop him further back than usual—to get Orb on the outside for a clear run?  Or will he let Orb just run his race?

Let’s also note that with all four of Orb wins in 2013, he has gone out wide for a clear run to the finish line so I’m anticipating this is what Rosorio will do. Let’s hope whatever is decided Orb will not be too far back since the mile and 3/16 is the shortest race in the Triple Crown trail.

Orb is an extremely versatile horse so whether Rosorio drops him back to go wide, or choose to skim the rail; I’m sure as methodical of a horse that Orb is he will handle whatever comes his way.

He’ll run his own race… he’ll be in control… and the next stop will be at the “Big Sandy” on June the 8th as we crown our next Triple Crown winner!

If you look at my previous blog “Pace Makes the Race” for the Kentucky Derby, I will stick to my previous Derby picks, but I am going to use Goldencents in my trifecta’s and superfecta’s only.

Best of Luck to Everyone!

Peter Pan…

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“The moment you doubt whether you can fly, you cease forever to be able to do it.”

J.M Barrie, Peter Pan

We all love the adventures of Disney’s Peter Pan, but what about the Grade-2 Peter Pan Stakes? We are about to embark on an adventure today at– 1 1/8 on a wet track with post time slated for 5:17pm ET.

This appears to be an open field of runners and if all goes well with Orb and the Racing Gods on May 11th in the Preakeness Stakes—I’m sure we will see one of these runners face him in the Belmont Stakes on June 8th.

Will one of these foes shake up our chances for the next Triple Crown winner? Lets hope not!

About half the field at one time or another have ran in graded stakes company, but no real stand outs to write home about. Although, I do feel there are a couple of horse’s with class that I need to mention.

The colt on paper that appears to have the best speed is Nick’s Zito’s DECLAN’S WARRIOR. A graded stakes winner, he won the Bayshore-G3 on April 6th. He’s is 1/1 at Belmont track and is a colt that has been improving. This is a colt that is owned and bred by Lucky Shamrock Stables. Trainer is at 20% for 1st time at route, and had a sharp bullet workout on May 4th.

FEAR THE KITTEN, ran a 2nd in the Southwest-G3 on a wet track; which he had to go 5 wide and rallied for 2nd and was second best of this group, but no match for SUPER NINETY NIE. He also placed 3rd in the Lecomte-G3 but again, had no rally for OXBOW and the 2nd placed Kentucky Derby contender GOLDEN SOUL.

There are also a handful in this group that are making their stakes debut for the first time. A stand out for me is INCOGNITO, trainer Kiaran McLaughlin. He’s morning line is 5-1. He has “excellent breeding” out of A.P. INDY and out of multiple stakes winner OCTAVE. Stamina as well as handling a wet track should not be a problem. He is owned and bred by Darley Stables and has some excellent workouts at Belmont. He’s jockey Michael Luzzi has been hot in the last 7 days and also had a sharp workout on May 4th. He is moving up in class, but in my opinion, he has the pedigree and class to do well. He is my key horse.

Last but not least, Todd Pletcher has 2 colts in this race that are difficult to not mention. Morning line favorite is ABRAHAM who has been improving with each race. Has already come in the money in stakes competition twice, and has won and placed at today’s distance. He has won on a sloppy track (20% mud rating out of 1443 mud starts) and you can’t go wrong with JR Velazquez on the mount. Again, sharp workout on May 4th.

BATTIER, the “other” Pletcher has a morning line of 8-1, and with Joel Rosorio on the mount he looks like the better of the two to me. Rosorio is on top of the world right now! 30% 1st start with trainer, he has won on a muddy track and with each race his speed figures are getting better. I would definitely put him in my exactas and trifecta’s. In 6 starts he has won 4 and came in second twice.

The longest shot on the board at 20-1 GO GET BASIL is also 1/1 at the “Big Sandy”.

With 9 out of 11 nominated for the Triple Crown in this group. I’m sure we’ll see a few entered in the Belmont Stakes taking on ORB, winner of the Kentucky Derby!

Emotional Conformation…

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I love handicapping a horse race…

I love reading about the horses past performances…

I love numbers and statistics (but only when it has to do with horse racing)…

When it comes to providing me the information I need to handicap a race I’m a fan of both Brisnet and the DRF as they each provide me the necessary information I need for handicapping a race. Important factors such as:  Statistics, workouts, speed fractions, Beyers speed figures, Tomlinson numbers, etc. are useful information when trying to weed out pretenders from the real contenders.

As a handicapper, all this information is invaluable in picking the right horses.

Last year I read about a method as equally important, and since then I have been a huge follower!

I first read about Thomas Herding Technique (also known as THT) about a year ago during the Derby. It was on the Kentucky Confidential website. As a Psychology major, I found this information fascinating and if you love the sport of thoroughbred horse racing you will also find his information intriguing. Take a look at what was written about last year’s winner, I’ll Have Another.

So what is this all about?  It’s about the emotional conformation of a horse. This information defines the mental and emotional psychology of a horse that makes up who they are.

The author Kerry Thomas has been recognized around the world as a researcher and service provider in the field of Equine Athletic Psychology.  His method, the Thomas Herding Technique provides valuable information to owners, trainers, and fans like myself.  You may wonder how does behavior such as individual dynamics, group dynamics, and patterns of motion have to do with winning a race.  I asked myself the same question, but after I found out about his method I was a believer that this information is equally, if not as important as numbers and statistics.

The analysis that Kerry Thomas has put together through observation and years of experience is invaluable. Getting in the mind of a horse and understanding its body language and patterns of movement is beyond amazing. As soon as I found out that Kerry Thomas book, Horse Profiling  (also written with Calvin L. Carter) hit the selves last April I ran out and bought a copy. I highly suggest this book for everyone who loves this sport!

So of course, when I found out Brisnet  was offering the “Thomas Herding Technique: Patterns of Motion Analysis” for this year’s Kentucky Derby I was beyond psyched!  This report was a huge factor in helping me handicap the race and pick this year’s Kentucky Derby winner, Orb.  The analysis discussed the emotional conformation of each derby contender, and more than numbers and statistics; this analysis had a huge impact in what colts to leave in my picks, and which colts to toss.

(Excerpt from his analysis on Orb):

“Orb is extremely versatile. He shows no sticking points or mental weaknesses. He operates strongly in traffic or in open space. He never shows a tendency to mimic the rhythm of any other horse (weaker horses sometimes do this for comfort).  Orb is above them.”

It’s important to understand that it is more than the numerical results that pick winners. Being aware of the horse’s patterns of movement, body language and spirit from within makes each colt’s emotional conformation unique and special. Understanding the horse’s mental and emotional set up is priceless, and truly separates the winner from other horses within the group dynamic.